The Manny strike is over

When February began, and the Manny saga reached it's unprecedentedly amazing fourth month, I decided I'd had enough; no new posts, no more writing, until Manny got signed. Now that he's "happily" wearing a Dodger uniform and cracking good-natured barbs with TJ Simers, I can safely resume my regular posting activities. And what better way to start than with a Ned Colletti Offseason Report Card, BaseballProspectus-style?



11/5/08: Declined $9.25 million option on RHP Brad Penny, choosing to pay $2 million buyout.

This was seen by most Dodger fans as a pathetic cost-cutting move, simply motivated by the fact that McCourt was a penny-pincher who only cared about money and wouldn't even guarantee a 1-year, $9.25-million deal to a guy who had been an All-Star as recently as 2007. Two problems with this theory were 1) Penny was getting fatter, more injury-prone, and less effective in 2008 at age 30; were all of those problems magically going to go away in 2009, at age 31? and 2) that $7.25 million would be best served to pay someone like, say, Manny Ramirez, later on. Upon hearing news that Penny's shoulder is again acting up in Red Sox camp, I can definitively say that Ned made the right decision here, even if Jason Schmidt is currently the Dodgers' #5 starter. GRADE: PASS (between PASS and FAIL)



11/5/08: Declined $5.5 million option on IF Angel Berroa, choosing to pay $500,000 buyout.

One of the all-time no-brainer transactions in baseball history. "Hey Ned, for lunch, would you rather have a gourmet Caesar salad or a giant plate of dog shit?" GRADE: PASS



12/9/08: Signed 3B/OF Casey Blake to a 3-year, $17.5-million contract with a team option for $5 million in 2013 or a $1.25 million buyout.

Oops. Blake was just okay throughout his entire two-month tenure with the Dodgers in 2008 (.251/.313/.460) and was completely awful in September (.220/.297/.415). The common baseball fan would look at those numbers and see a 35-year-old third baseman in his decline phase. Ned didn't see it that way, as he outbid the Twins in the Blake sweepstakes by not only guaranteeing Casey a third year (which the Twins were wisely reluctant to do) but also including a team option in his contract for 2012 (the surest "decline" in the history of baseball, bar none). This signing showed that while Ned's gotten a little better with his veteran love-fest over the years, he still has a lot to learn. It's also possible that after the huge fallout from Dodger fans after Carlos Santana turned out to be Mike Piazza Light in the Indians' farm system that Ned didn't want to say that he gave him up for just a mediocre half-season of Casey Blake. However, it will probably turn out that trying to get more out of his investment will only make the trade look worse in the long run. GRADE: C- (on the standard A-F scale)



12/10/08: Signed IF Mark Loretta to a 1-year, $1.25-million contract.

If you could say one thing about Mark Loretta, it's this: "He's not Mark Sweeney." Which is a very, very, very good thing. Loretta's 37, but he'll still give you a .275 batting average, a .350 OBP, average defense, and a good clubhouse presence. Plus, he won't complain about playing time even though he's been an All-Star fairly recently (or, in other words, he won't "pull a Juan Pierre"). For just $1.25 million, that's a bargain. GRADE: B



12/19/08: Signed SS Rafael Furcal to a 3-year, $30-million contract with a vesting option for a fourth year worth $12 million.

One of the 2008 offseason's most interesting contracts, for sure. Over the course of his last three-year contract with the Dodgers, Furcal produced one good year (2006), one bad year (2007), and one injury-decimated year (2008). This last season, he looked like an All-Star for one month (April), a decent player for one month (October), and, well, a hospital patient for the other five. Is it necessesarily the best idea to give an oft-injured guy a three-year contract when he plays one of the most physically demanding positions in the game? That's up for debate, but these three things are for sure: 1) Ned got Furcal at a discounted price, as Raffy had a 4-year/$48 million offer from the A's at one point, 2) Ned got Furcal for the same price that the Cubs got Milton Bradley (a DH who's had one fully healthy season out of eight in his entire career), and 3) there's no question about Furcal's potential; PECOTA's 90 percentile projection for him is .317/.394/.460, which comes out to a 46.5 VORP and a .307 Eqa. So it's a bargain, but a risky one, which means that I can't definitively come out in favor of it, but I can't necessarily rip it to shreds either. (This contract looks a little better in light of the recent injury to shortstop prospect Ivan Dejesus jr. that will probably push his ML debut back to about 2012 instead of 2010; still, since there's no way Ned could have predicted that, it doesn't affect his grade for this transaction.) GRADE: B-



1/5/09: Signed RHP Claudio Vargas to a 1-year, $400,000 contract, with incentives potentially making the contract worth $1.4 million.

The first in a long line of "backup fifth starters" that Ned would acquire in the winter, Vargas is probably the best of them, as PECOTA has him down for a not-terrible 4.69 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 2009. In all honesty, it would probably be best for the Dodgers if they let him start the season as the #5 starter instead of Schmidt, but (barring an injury) that won't happen because Vargas will make 2.5% of what Schmidt will make in 2009, and you know that Ned and McCourt are desperate to get anything they can out of their ridiculous $47-million investment. Call Vargas a victim of circumstance, as well as a fairly solid fifth starter/long reliever who could be the 2008 Chan Ho Park of the 2009 Dodgers. GRADE: B-



1/9/09: Signed LHP Shawn Estes to a Minor League contract guaranteeing him $550,000 if he makes the team, which can eventually turn into $1.55 million if he hits a certain number of incentives.

The second of Ned's "Schmidt insurance starters," Estes actually did pretty well in 2008 against lefties, holding them to a line of .193/.313/.293 (in just 48 plate appearances, but still). If he were to make the team as a lefty relief specialist, I wouldn't complain too loudly. But since the team has said that his only role would be as a starter, I can't see him making the team at any point at all during the 2009 season. Since he won't earn any guaranteed money, there's really nothing to say about this transaction. GRADE: N/A


1/14/09: Signed RHP Guillermo Mota to a 1-year, $2.35-million contract, with incentives potentially making the contract worth $2.65 million.

Mota had somewhat of a mixed legacy in his first go-round as a Dodger; he went from effective relief guy (2002) to The Guy Who Ran Away From Mike Piazza (spring 2003) to DUI guy (May 2003) to Eric Gagne's reliable sidekick (April-June 2004) to Oh My God How Could We Have Possibly Traded Him (July 30, 2004). Ever since leaving the Dodgers, Mota's career has basically gone in the shitter; he greatly underachieved for Florida after going there in the Brad Penny trade, then got suspended 50 games for steroids, and in 2007 posted the worst full-season ERA of his career at 5.76. In 2008, though, he knocked that figure down to 4.11 despite pitching in a better park for hitters, and all signs indicate that he's turning his life and career around. A one-year, $2.35-million contract sounds about right for him, but you would have liked to see Ned go after a reliever whose 50 percentile PECOTA projection was better than a 4.52 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. GRADE: B-


1/15/09: Released Andruw Jones, deferring his contract through the year 2014.

So ended one of the worst free agent sagas of any athlete in any sport. Jones got on the bad side of Dodger fans before the 2008 season even started when he showed up to spring training overweight, and within two weeks of the season starting (with Jones' average somewhere around the .100 mark), he was getting booed before every plate appearance and even when his face showed up on the Jumbotron for sponsors and commercials between innings. When he went down with a knee injury in June, the uniform response among all Dodger fans was, "Great! Is he out for the season??" despite the fact that Juan Pierre was his replacement. Unfortunately for all parties, he returned in July, and things got no better as he continued to strike out and weakly ground out with regularity. The fan treatment of him, if possible, worsened, as the entire city was pretty much begging Ned Colletti to dispose of him. After Manny Ramirez was acquired, Jones got "injured" again and went to AAA for rehab, although everyone knew that Ned was just hiding Jones there so that he wouldn't be in a living hell anymore. Jones made neither the NLDS nor the NLCS roster for the Dodgers, and after the season was dubbed the "Worst Offensive Player in Baseball History" by Jayson Stark of ESPN.com. Understandably, Jones asked to leave the Dodgers, and when no trading partners were found, Ned was forced to cut him in January, with Jones eventually signing a minor league contract with the Texas Rangers and starting the spring off 1-for-9 with an infield single and eight strikeouts. Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro, and Barry Bonds may beg to differ, but I don't think any baseball player has ever fallen so far so fast. Ned deserves credit for cutting him, but he also deserves a substantial amount of flak for signing him in the first place, so I'm basically passing on this transaction. GRADE: N/A


1/26/09: Signed Brad Ausmus to a 1-year, $1-million contract.

Nothing much to say here; Ausmus is a decent backup catcher with Southern California roots. He won't hit much, but he will "call a good game" and presumably play decent defense, which is really all you can ask out of your #2 catcher. Another thing to consider is that his name carries enough weight (what with the Gold Gloves and all) that Torre will probably use him much more than he did Danny Ardoin, meaning more rest for Russell Martin and probably better production from him overall. GRADE: PASS


2/6/09: Signed Randy Wolf to a 1-year, $5-million contract, with incentives potentially making the contract worth $8 million.

Like Rafael Furcal's contract, this one is somewhat risky. Wolf's 2008 campaign was pretty good (190.1 innings, 162 strikeouts, 1.38 WHIP), but his injury history is frightening; 2008 was his first season of 30 or more starts since 2003, and pitchers don't tend to get healthier as they get older. However, due to the length and amount of guaranteed money on the contract, the Wolf signing isn't nearly as risky as the Furcal signing; it's a one-year deal for only $5 million, a bargain for a potential #3 starter. Add in the fact that Wolf's second half produced a solid 3.77 ERA in the launching pad of Minute Maid Park, and it looks like this was a pretty good snag by Colletti. Now, about keeping Wolf healthy...GRADE: B+


2/9/09: Signed Jeff Weaver to a minor league contract.

A few days before this signing, Frank McCourt had angrily jumped the gun and announced that the Dodgers would not be drafting Scott Boras clients in the 2009 draft, and considering Boras' behavior during the Manny negotiations you couldn't really blame Frank. In what was almost definitely just a gesture to get back on Boras' good side, the Dodgers gave Weaver a minor league contract with "a chance to earn the #5 starter job in spring training." Weaver's spring ERA currently stands at a tidy 0.00, but he'll almost definitely be starting the season in the minors, and who knows how long he'll be willing to play there. GRADE: N/A


2/22/09: Signed Orlando Hudson to a 1-year, $3.38-million contract, with incentives potentially making the contract worth $8 million.

This was one of the best bargain signs of the offseason. Hudson's Weighted Mean PECOTA projection stands at .279/.350/.392, but considering that 1) he missed out on his big multi-year contract this offseason and will definitely be wanting it next offseason, 2) he's familiar with the NL West and doesn't really have to adapt to a new situation, 3) his contract will be worth more if he plays well, and 4) he's a career .313/.375/.463 hitter at Dodger Stadium, I'd say that his 75 percentile forecast of .295/.368/.421 sounds much more likely. One does have to consider that the Dodgers lost their first-round pick to the Diamondbacks as well as the fact that Hudson's missed a good chunk of time the last two seasons with injuries (albeit fluke injuries), but there's no way to argue that this was anything but a good signing. GRADE: B+


2/26/09: Signed Doug Mientkiewicz to a minor league contract.

I don't know if Mientkiewicz will make the Dodger Opening Day roster, but after he's started the spring off with two home runs and five RBIs in his first three games, it seems like he'll have to do an awful lot to not make the team. If he does, he'll be a huge upgrade over last year's lefthanded bat off the bench, Mark Sweeney, who became the token "Okay, this guy's up, time to hit the concession stands" pinch hitter that the Dodgers seem to be so fond of acquiring. If Mientkiewicz makes the roster, though, the team might skip that tradition for a year. GRADE: B-


3/4/09: Signed Manny Ramirez to a 2-year, $45-million contract with the second year a player option that Ramirez can void in November of 2009.

It's often said that the baseball offseason is a season in itself; the "Hot Stove League," if you will. It typically lasts from November through mid-January or so, when all but a few straggling minor free agents are signed, and it's usually an enjoyable yet tension-filled few months that ends in time for one to kick back, relax, and watch the NFL Playoffs without having to worry about baseball for a few months. But the 2008 offseason for Dodger fans...well, fuck all that noise. It can conservatively be described as "a marathon, not a sprint," thanks to one Manny Ramirez and one Scott Boras. The day after the Dodgers were eliminated from the playoffs, the major question on every fan's mind was "Are we going to get Manny back?" and unbelievably, five months, four different contract offers and roughly 7 billion updates of MLB Trade Rumors later, Manny was still unsigned as spring training began. Rehashing the entire story might take 500,000 words, and this is all that really needs to be known:


In November, the Dodgers offered Manny a 2-year deal for $45 million. After laughing himself silly, Boras ignored the offer and a week later said, "We're now beginning to field serious offers for Manny." In February, the Dodgers offered Manny a 2-year deal for $45 million. Boras made a counteroffer of a 2-year for $45 million. Frank McCourt angrily rejected the offer, threw verbal daggers at Boras and Manny through the press, and basically said that Boras could shove his 2-year deal for $45 million up his ass and wait for those "serious offers" from other teams. A couple of days later, Boras called McCourt and offered him a 2-year deal for $45 million. McCourt accepted. And yeah, the whole process was even stupider than it sounds.


Still, the way the deal was structured, McCourt/Ned got a potential .315/35/120 hitter for just $10 million guaranteed in 2009, or the same amount of money that Juan Pierre will make. That's a solid contract, even if it took 30 years off every Dodger fan's life. GRADE: A-




FINAL GRADE: I believe that Ned is contractually obliged to sign one blatantly obviously terrible free-agent deal every offseason (see: Brett Tomko in 2005, Juan Pierre in 2006, Andruw Jones in 2007), and Casey Blake's contract was that one for 2008. Still, look back over those last three contracts and try to tell me that Blake's wasn't the best deal among them. That, along with the fact that Ned got some great bargains in Wolf, Hudson, and (eventually) Manny, as well as the fact that he didn't pull off any stupid trades to acquire half-assed veterans that would barely make any difference (I'm looking at you, Danys Baez and Jae Seo), and I'd have to say that this was Ned's best offseason yet. I could be eating those words as soon as May, but I don't think I will this time. OVERALL GRADE: B+ (with the Wolf/Hudson/Manny contracts weighted more heavily than the rest of the transactions)




Who's ready for some baseball?